India’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level for the first time. Reacting to the development, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on X that “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.”A analysis by The Economist identifies education as one of the strong factors behind the country’s long-term fertility decline.According to the report, “In the 1990s the decline in fertility accelerated, as more girls went to school and the country got richer.”It says India’s experience reflects what researchers have long observed about fertility trends. Citing economist Lant Pritchett, it notes that “by far the most important factor for fertility is whether girls go to school.”The report further explains: “Those with at least some education have a greater degree of autonomy, and over time this leads to fewer children.”It adds that “falling fertility in India now reflects a surge in girls’ enrolment in school since the 1990s.”While the report does not specifically state that the most educated Indians crossed the replacement fertility threshold years ago, it does directly connect rising levels of education, especially among girls, with the country’s declining birth rate.
Quantity-quality trade-of
The report says many Indian parents are making what demographers call a “quantity-quality trade-off” — choosing fewer children so they can spend more on each child’s education and future opportunities.The report cites the example of a mother in Chennai who said, “All our resources should go to one because if it’s two it gets divided.”She said it costs around 3.5 lakh rupees to send her daughter to a private school and pay for extra tutoring.The report notes that the proportion of Indian children studying in fee-paying schools rose from 31.7 per cent in 2015 to 38.8 per cent in 2025. It says the trend is not limited to richer states, with surveys in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh suggesting that many families are opting for smaller families so they can afford private tuition.The report also argues that India’s fertility decline challenges some traditional assumptions.Despite fertility falling sharply, more than 90 per cent of Indian women still marry. The average woman marries at 19 and has her first child at 21. Yet family sizes continue to shrink.For now, India’s population continues to grow and stands at around 1.45 billion. However, with fertility at 1.9 births per woman, the report says a future population decline is becoming increasingly likely unless fertility rises again.