The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) board is set to meet on May 22 to consider a potentially record surplus transfer to the government for FY27, with economists estimating the payout in the range of Rs 2.7 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, ET reported citing people familiar with the matter.The expected surplus transfer, commonly referred to as the RBI dividend to the government, comes as the Centre has already budgeted Rs 3.16 lakh crore in FY27 from dividends of state-owned companies and transfers from the central bank.Last year, the RBI transferred Rs 2.68 lakh crore to the government, which was 27 per cent higher than the previous year.Economists said gains from foreign exchange interventions and investment income are likely to support the payout, while the eventual amount could rise further if the RBI opts for a lower contingency buffer.The final amount will be decided when the RBI board meets in Mumbai on Friday.RBI dividend transfers have emerged as an important source of non-tax revenue for the government in recent years. A sharp fall of nearly 10 per cent in the dollar and a rise of about 60 per cent in gold prices during FY26 have also improved the central bank’s accounting profitability.The surplus transfer is expected to provide fiscal support and help contain pressure on the government’s deficit position at a time when a weaker rupee and higher import costs remain concerns.The payout will be determined under the revised Economic Capital Framework (ECF), which requires the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) to remain within 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet. In FY26, the RBI maintained the CRB at the upper end of 7.5 per cent.“We estimate a surplus transfer of Rs 2.8 lakh crore, assuming a CRB of 6.5%,” said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank, ET quoted.Barclays expects the transfer at Rs 3 lakh crore, while Emkay has estimated a range of Rs 2.8 lakh crore to Rs 3.4 lakh crore depending on the level of buffer maintained by the central bank.IDFC First Bank chief economist Gaura Sengupta, however, expects the payout to remain broadly in line with last year.“Earnings from foreign exchange transactions are expected to be lower, with gross dollar sales at $166 billion in FY26 (till February) compared with $399 billion in FY25. The historical cost of dollar purchases is around 84 in FY26 versus 82 in FY25, which remains below the current spot rate,” she said.“RBI’s forward book was already large at the start of FY26, limiting its ability to sterilise spot interventions. This resulted in lower gross dollar sales during the year. The West Asia crisis likely increased dollar sales in March 2026, which has been factored into estimates,” she added.